New Blog Location

Just in case I have any readers on this site, I have moved my blog on hockey to the following address:

http://openicehits-dustinmorley.blogspot.com/

I’m a fan of all the different features that this Google blogging site has, so hopefully I’ll be able to have a pretty enjoyable blog. Check it out!

- Dustin

What’s Next for LA?

Even with Kovalchuck’s contract with the Devils under all kind of questions, I see no way that Kovie doesn’t remain with the Devils. It would be a PR disaster considering that New Jersey already introduced him at a press conference. So the question for LA fans, is what do the Kings do now that Kovie is out of the picture?

The Kings are a solid young team that has to extend Drew Doughty, Jack Johnson, and Wayne Simmonds next year and all three are going to be looking at major raises. Of course, Handzus and Williams can be expected to take pay cuts or to be replaced with cheaper contracts, but the Kings will still have to be careful about any long-term contracts. And frankly, the Kings are more than once piece away from having a championship caliber team – in fact I would see they need another goal-scoring winger, top 4 d-man, and a 2nd line center as Stoll and Handzus are both effect 3rd line centers.

The 2nd line center could possibly be filled if Brayden Schenn makes the team and develops quickly. So what are some reasonable options to get a top winger and defenseman?

Well, the free agent pool is definitely small at this point. Maxim Afinogenov could be a fit simply due to being a very entertaining player to watch, but nobody would mistake him for a top scoring winger. He’s more a really good 2nd or 3rd line scorer when he doesn’t have to deal with opposing checking lines. Lee Stempniak meanwhile has been way too inconsistent to be considered a legitimate top line player, while aging veterans such as Paul Kariya and Bill Guerin also are more depth players at this point. The free agent pool for defensemen is even smaller – with only true depth guys being available. Still, Andreas Lilja might be the type of guy that could really work out well for LA as a penalty killing specialist and a 6th defenseman.

First, let’s look at some trade options.

Still, it seems as if trades are really the best ways for the Kings to improve. I’ve seen some rumors of LA being interested in Toronto’s Kaberle, but that doesn’t make much sense for the player or the team. Instead, a guy like St. Louis’s Eric Brewer might be a good fit. He’s only got a year on his contract, so LA wouldn’t have to worry about his addition crippling their efforts to lock up their top RFAs next year, and he’s a steady defensive guy that could add some veteran experience to the lineup. Also, I would think St. Louis would be happy to move his contract given their ownership issues right now, and could use that money to lock up Erik Johnson and bring in a cheaper veteran. Plus, LA has plenty of prospects to offer up. Other similar options include Kevin Bieksa, Craig Rivet, and Steve Staios.

Mike Modano in the Motor City?

It’s being reported that the only team showing any interest in the 40-year-0ld Mike Modano is the Detroit Red Wings. Modano is obviously at the very end of his career, and is a native to the metro-Detroit area. The Wings are a team that looks to be as good as any other team in the West next year, and thus could give Modano a shot at winning one more cup before calling it a career. And that’s just about where this move stops making sense to me.

The Red Wings have 18 players signed for the next season, including 10 forwards. They will still resign Darren Helm, Justin Abdelkader, Patrick Eaves, and Drew Miller. That would mean 22 players and 14 forwards. These signings will also more or less push the Wings up against the salary cap. There’s no way I see the final roster spot going to a 15th forward… not when the Wings really need another defender with the unproven Jonathan Ericsson and Jakub Kindl as their third pairing right now. Sure, the Red Wings could waive Mattias Ritola who is a forward signed with the team next season and only projects as a bottom six forward at best. Still, the money just isn’t there for Modano as far as I can tell.

This isn’t saying that I’m against bringing in Modano, just that I don’t see how he fits on the roster or in the cap. We’ll see.

The Curious Case of Jeff Carter and the Philadelphia Flyers

So the Philadelphia Flyers have asked long time Flyer, Simon Gagne, a solid though injury prone two-way forward with a knack for scoring clutch goals, to waive his no trade clause theoretically with the intention of using the created cap space to sign either Marty Turco or Evgeni Nabokov – both of whom are considered top level goaltenders and would significantly improve the Flyers’ goaltending. Fair enough.

But of all the forwards on the Flyers’ roster, why doesn’t it make the most sense to trade Jeff Carter? Jeff Carter, a center on a team stacked with top 6 centers (Richards, Briere, Giroux) and boasting a limited amount of top 6 wingers (Gagne, Hartnell, Leino, van Riemsdyk) and that’s assuming that those wingers can stay healthy and be consistent – something none of them have been able to do as of yet. Also, the Flyers don’t boast any solid prospects who will challenge to contribute as top 9 forwards in the next couple years. Meanwhile, Carter has transformed into one of the premier scorers in the league in the regular season – a guy will score 30-40 goals a year. And he’s quite young. So yeah, it would seem as if he’s a guy you would want to hold on to. However, he’s not an effective winger. And neither are Richards, Briere, or Giroux. And Carter has never been a guy that has been able to take over a playoff game – though he can get a pass this season as he was playing on two injured (broken?) feet. Still, he’s always been a perimeter player who gets shut down in the playoffs. And the playoffs are what matters to Philadelphia. So that seems to be a valid reason to at least explore trading him, though Holmgren has declared Carter to be untouchable.

Fine, he’s a scoring machine in the regular season. But now look at the Flyers’ contracts next year:

Next summer the Flyers have the following expiring contracts: Gagne, Carter, Giroux, Leino, O’Donnell, Boucher, Cote.
Of those guys, Carter, Giroux, and Leino are all due raises. Cote will likely either get a minor raise or leave. Boucher may get a minor pay cut, as will O’Donnell or he’ll leave. Gagne will probably take a pay cut of a million. Yet, as an RFA, Carter will for sure be making at least $6 million per year. That’s a million dollar raise. If Leino continues to fit in (I think he will) he will probably post something like a 20-35/40 stat line. That will probably earn him a 2.5 million dollar contract… about a $2 million dollar raise. Meanwhile, if Giroux continues his growth and is a top 9 or top 6 forward he can look for a 15-25/25-35 stat line. As a center and a young player, he’s got plenty of potential. He could look for a contract like Pavelski, and I’d say will for sure get a contract in the $3-$4 million range. So, you’re looking at a 4-6 million dollar raise for those players next summer.

Assuming the cap rises another $2 million dollars (not at all a safe assumption – could easily fall too), the Flyers could probably have room for those three players without Gagne. However, it will put them right against the cap – not a good spot to be.

Meanwhile, even after a lackluster playoff performance, and his typically soft play, Jeff Carter is still a hugely valuable asset. He is also a signed asset this coming year and an RFA next year, meaning he’ll be able to be resigned. Teams like LA, Minnesota, St. Louis, Toronto, Columbus, NYI would all probably give up a huge package to acquire Carter. Teams like Buffalo, Florida, Dallas, Anaheim, Atlanta, Nashville, Ottawa, Edmonton, and Calgary may also be willing to give up a huge package in order to acquire Carter.

Philadelphia could easily stockpile a combination of draft picks, prospects, and young roster players from the trade and then have room to sign Turco. They would have essentially the same team that did so well in the playoffs this year with the additions of Turco, Meszaros, and O’Donnell, when you consider how little Carter contributed. And they can reasonably expect improvement from JvR. And as pointed out, they still have depth at center with Richards/Briere/Giroux.

So, why the heck is Jeff Carter untouchable?

Trades that Would Make Sense

These are some trades that I’ve come up with that to me make a lot of sense for the teams involved – not anything based on rumors. Just trades that I think would end up being good hockey trades. For now I’ll just post one. So let me know what you think.

1) Minnesota trading Brent Burns and Josh Harding to Philadelphia for Jeff Carter.

Why It Makes Sense: Minnesota is looking for a top-tier young forward who can score – preferably a center. Carter would fit this perfectly and would be a good fit centering Havlat and Latendresse. The trade makes sense for Philly because they proved at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs that they can be a great team without Jeff Carter. When you have the likes of Richards, Briere, and Giroux playing center too, that really isn’t a huge surprise. Also, Philly showed they would like to ice a great top-5 defense corps, and Burns would fall into that quite well. Plus, Burns can easily play forward if you want to move him there for a game or a series. And in Harding, Philly would get a promising young goaltender who could take over as their franchise goalie. He would also be quite affordable, making the trade almost a wash salary-wise.

Why It Won’t Happen: Paul Holmgren seems to consider Jeff Carter an untouchable even though he has yet to make a difference in the playoffs and the team has 4 top two centers. And Minnesota seems to want to acquire a player who has a few years left on his contract instead of the one that Carter has.

Vancouver/Florida Trade + Round 1 Quick Hits

There was only one trade at the draft where signed NHL players were traded, and that was when Vancouver traded Steve Bernier, Michael Grabner, and the 25th overall pick to Florida for Keith Ballard and prospect Victor Oreskovich. A lot of people seem to think that Florida won this trade. They added two top 9 forwards in Bernier and Grabner, both with enough skill to also spend time on a 2nd or maybe even 1st line. After trading Horton, Florida needed more forwards and Grabner has the potential to turn into a 25-30 goal guy. The pick and player picked by Florida (Quinton Howden) also helps the rebuilding team put another prospect in the system. So yes, it was a good  trade for Florida. Especially since their 3rd overall pick, Gudbranson, could easily make the team next year and take a chunk of Ballard’s minutes.

However, even at 4.2 million for 5 seasons, I like Ballard. He has a bit of offensive capabilities, and is a warrior. I remember watching a Florida/Pittsburgh game two years ago where he leveled Malkin and followed it up by fighting Crosby. Of course, nobody looks at Crosby as an intimidating fighter, but it just shows that Ballard can make a big hit and then stand up for himself. I really think he significantly improves Vancouver’s defensive corps, and will help them in the playoffs. Ballard’s never played on a good team, and I think people will soon think of this as a good hockey trade. At 4.2 million, Ballard comes at probably the same price Hamhuis and Michalek will come at, and cheaper than what Martin, Volchenkov and Gonchar will fetch on the open market. And of those players, none can boast both physical play and offensive capabilities as Ballard can. Also, Vancouver still has the following forwards who could be considered top 6 forwards next year: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Ryan Kesler, Mason Raymond, Alexandre Burrows, Mikael Samuelsson, and prospect Cody Hodgson.

As for the rest of round 1, here are some quick thoughts:

• Just as surprised as everybody else to see Fowler and Gormley fall so low. Just shows that teams are looking for forwards.

• Also surprised to see Pittsburgh and Philadelphia make a trade – Philly would probably rather any other team have Hamhuis’s rights than Pittsburgh which leads me to believe that the Penguins were the only team offering a decent asset for the rights. I still think Holmgren should have signed Hamhuis and moved a forward… and that Jeff Carter shouldn’t be an untouchable. Philly boasts enough offense without Carter, and could use him to get a good young goalie and add some top prospects – both of which Philly desperately needs.

• I wanted to see the Wings snag Austin Watson, but expected him to go before 21st overall and he did as he went to Nashville. I think he’ll be a good player – as does Nashville, who always seem to draft a defender but changed that up and went for Watson this year.

Grading Off-season Moves

As usual, it’s been a long time since I’ve blogged. I’m not too busy this summer, so I’ll see if I can change that. So I’m going to attempt to grade and comment on everything that has happened so far since the Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup. I’ll give letter grades where C actually means average, as is not bad or good. For now I’ll just start with the biggest trades:

• St. Louis trades prospects Lars Eller and Ian Schultz to Montreal to rights to goaltender Jaroslav Halak. This trade came as a major surprise after the success Halak enjoyed last season and his performance in the playoffs against Washington and Pittsburgh. However, Halak will require a big-money, long-term contract that the Canadiens didn’t feel as if they had room for. Meanwhile, their default backup last year, Carey Price, becomes their starter and will be able to be signed for a lot cheaper. And, Price definitely has the potential to be one of the top goaltenders in the league. Still, this is risky for Montreal because the fans have gotten into Price’s head in the past year and they didn’t get a king’s ransom for Halak – though Eller and Schultz are both solid prospects. Meanwhile, St. Louis obviously gets a world-class goaltender. I’ll give St. Louis an A- for this move, and Montreal a C.
• Philadelphia trades Ryan Parent to Nashville to the rights to Dan Hamhuis and a conditional draft pick. Philadelphia still has to sign Hamhuis, and between that signing along with the pursuit of a goaltender, they’re going to have to trade one of  their big contracts – likely a forward. What this does though (assuming Philly does sign Hamhuis) is give Philly the deepest defensive corps in the Eastern Conference. This will go a long ways to help matching up against offensive juggernauts such as Pittsburgh and Washington in the playoffs – teams they didn’t have to face this past year. The forward they trade will be interesting – and while I still say it should be Jeff Carter since the team achieved so much without his contributions this past year and because he could garner the best return, I highly doubt they’ll keep their best goal scorer. The team does have 4 players who will be the best as first or second line centers though in Richards, Carter, Briere and Giroux. And of those four, I’d say Carter should be the guy to go. As for Nashville, they get a decent young defenseman for a player whom they weren’t going to be able to sign. Parent regressed last year due to injuries, I feel might be able to bounce back with Nashville – a team that boasts a ridiculous amount of good young defenseman. I’ll give an A- to both clubs for this one.
• Nashville trades Jason Arnott to New Jersey for Matt Halischuk and a second-round pick. Halischuk is an average prospect at best, however Nashville made this move to clear salary and to open up the captaincy to one of their young players – a.k.a. Shea Weber or Ryan Suter who are the true leaders on this team. Also, Nashville gains flexibility with Arnott’s contract off the books. Still, they’ll have to find a way to replace Arnott’s production. Meanwhile, New Jersey finally gets a center for their second line in Arnott. This depth down the middle can only help, plus Arnott has played and won the Cup with New Jersey before. B- for Nashville and a B for New Jersey.
• Boston trades Dennis Wideman, a 1st round pick, and a 3rd round pick to Florida for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell. This is a great trade for Boston. They have a plethora of picks these next two years, and Horton gives them a power forward entering his prime that will compliment they’re strong selection of centers. Meanwhile, Campbell is the perfect fourth line center. Florida gets a good defender in his prime in Wideman, though he struggle for most of the past season, and adds to their draft picks. For a rebuilding club like Florida, that’s what it’s all about. A for Boston, B for Florida.
• Chicago trades Dustin Byfuglien, Brent Sopel, Ben Eager, and Akim Aliu to Atlanta for Marty Reasoner, a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, and Joey Crabb. Chicago has to shed major salary for the coming year, and this trade exemplifies that. It’s hard for me to picture Chicago without the huge presence of Byfuglien, and I think that’s something they’ll struggle with in the playoffs next year where Byfugline always shines. Meanwhile, Sopel and Eager are depth players and Aliu is a good prospect – and probably the most surprising part of the trade. In return, the Blackhawks get a decent fourth line center in Reasoner, a couple decent picks, and an average prospect in Crabb. The Blackhawks did acquire assets, but trading Byfuglien is going to be felt. The Thrashers get depth and a power forward in this deal, though it’s interesting to me because Byfuglien is more a complementary player than a core player which is more or less what he becomes on the young Thrashers. C- for the Blackhawks and a B- for the Thrashers.

Quick Hits

Been a while, but I’m back. Here’s some quick hits:

• Obviously disappointed to see the Wings bow out to the Sharks in five games. A longer summer will be a huge benefit to the Wings though and with a little cap room and the return of Jiri Hudler the Wings should be in good shape to make the playoffs and try to make another run next year. I also expect to see Lidstrom return.
• In the East, it’s hard to say whether the better story is Philadelphia or Montreal. Either way, it’s a huge win for the league as both are big hockey markets that will eat up an unexpected chance to play for the Stanley Cup.
• In the West, it’s a battle of the titans. Even though it seems as if you’d want the team that beat your hometown team to win it all, I have to say I quite like the Blackhawks. The team is so deep and has all kinds of different players on it that gel extremely well. Talent, depth, and character usually leads to a Cup. I’m also not sure that San Jose is equipped to deal with a team that can boast three legitimate scoring lines.
• Dale Tallon has been hired as the GM of the Florida Panthers. Tallon is the man responsible for rebuilding the Chicago Blackhawks and has more to work with in Florida in terms of assets than he did in the beginning with Chicago. It’ll be interesting to see what he does.

Wings Down 2-0 to San Jose

A lot of Wings fans are going to blame game 2 on the refs. They are going to say that the NHL doesn’t want to keep seeing the Wings win again and again. Yes, the conspiracy theories will be there. And admittedly there were a lot of weak calls in that game, though the Sharks also were on the wrong end of at least one weak call. However, the calls are not why the Wings lost the game. They just didn’t have that extra step, that will to attack, that will to win that they do when they take over games.

The first problem is that the Wings are getting destroyed in the faceoff dot. San Jose was the best team in the league at faceoffs this year, but the Wings experienced this problem against Phoenix too. They need to remedy this right away. Another thing that needs to be done right away is containing Joe Pavelski. I feel like Lidstrom and Rafalski need to be on the ice whenever he is. He’s extremely quick and obviously hard to contain. He needs to be priority number one for the Wings. Sure, Thornton had a goal and assist tonight but the goal was pure luck and the assist was just a faceoff win I believe. So, it’s Pavelski that the Wings need to figure out.

Datsyuk and Holmstrom had good games tonight. Abdelkader and Helm were moderately effective. The rest of the forward corps was missing for  the most part. Howard was a stud, the four goals against isn’t reflective of how he played.

Here’s hoping the Wings can turn this around. Two wins at home and these Sharks could be toast. They do have a fragile playoff psyche after all.

Thoughts on Game 3 of Sharks/Avs

So, probably everybody has seen just how San Jose lost in overtime last night. An attempted pass behind the net by Sharks’ defender Dan Boyle deflects off Avs forward Ryan O’Reilly and into the net. This after Craig Anderson turned aside all 51 shots he faced and the Sharks dominated the Avs in the second and third period.

If San Jose bounces back from this to win this series and make a long playoff run, good for them. If not, and they lose this series, one would think there has to be some personal changes on the team. This is largely Joe Thornton, Partick Marleau, and Evgeni Nabokov’s team. Thornton has been unable to raise his game in the playoffs, Marleau has seen his playoff numbers drop every year since the lockout I believe, and Nabokov hasn’t been able to show up consistently in big games. If the Sharks lose, it seems as if they have to let Nabokov and Marleau (UFA’s) walk and should explore trading Thornton. Of course, if the Sharks win the Cup this year, well then nevermind.